Fuel purchases among Discovery Insure clients fell 33% in October after inland 95-octane petrol rose above R30 a litre, according to an analysis of the insurer’s transaction and telematics data.
The analysis, covering more than 200 000 clients, found that motorists were buying less fuel per transaction but making more frequent visits to service stations. Average fuel volumes per purchase fell from about 36 litres to 31 litres during months with larger price increases. Purchases of less than 20 litres accounted for 36% of transactions in 2026, up from 25% in 2025.
The findings are based on Discovery Insure’s client data and do not represent all South African motorists.
Smaller fill-ups, more frequent visits
During periods of significant fuel price movements, purchases of less than 20 litres accounted for nearly 40% of transactions between the 25th and month-end, compared with about 20% normally.
Monthly visits to fuel stations also increased ahead of price changes, from an average of 2.4 to just over three.
The rise in smaller purchases occurred when prices were expected to increase and when they were expected to fall, suggesting motorists are adjusting how they fill up in anticipation of price changes.
There was also a rush to buy fuel before the October increase took effect. Discovery Insure recorded a 300% increase in fuel-purchasing volumes before midnight on 6 October, with diesel purchases up 400%. The insurer said the surge was similar to the one recorded in May, but higher than the 200% increase it typically sees before a price hike.
Driving has largely held steady
The data shows that everyday driving has remained broadly stable, despite changes in fuel-buying habits.
Trips and kilometres travelled fell in April. Even after excluding the Easter weekend, trips were down 8%, while distances travelled were 9% lower by May. The reductions did not last: from June to September, trips and distances were slightly higher than during the same period in 2025.
Following the October price increase, trips fell by 6% and kilometres travelled by 7%.
The largest cutbacks were in discretionary travel. Discovery Insure recorded a 30% decline in long-distance trips during the winter months, while commuting remained relatively unchanged.
“There’s a difference between buying less fuel and needing less fuel,” said Robert Attwell, chief executive of Discovery Insure. “Motorists can cut back on some discretionary trips, but getting to school and going about their daily lives isn’t optional.”
Fuel costs are spreading beyond the pump
Discovery Insure’s data shows average monthly fuel expenditure among its clients rose from about R1,750 at the beginning of 2025 to between R2,500 and R2,700 by mid-2026.
Inland 95-octane petrol rose from R20.75 a litre in January 2026 to R30.25 in October, according to the release. For a motorist filling a 50-litre tank, that is an additional R475 compared with January.
Statistics South Africa reported that transport costs rose 10.8% year-on-year, more than double the overall inflation rate of 4.5%.
Sfiso Skenjana, an economist and managing director at ESG Analytics, said higher fuel costs affect households beyond their direct spending at the pump. Diesel is used to transport goods and operate businesses, so increases can feed through to the prices of everyday products and services.
He said lower- and middle-income households are particularly exposed, with transport accounting for between 15% and 22% of income for these groups.
The release also cited Statistics South Africa’s latest Producer Price Index, which showed producer prices rose 6.2% in September, up from 5% in August, partly because of higher fuel costs.
“We’ve already got very low savings levels in the country because people don’t actually have money,” Skenjana said.
