South African consumers are spending again – but not in the way a recovery might typically suggest.
New data from the SpendTrend26 report, released by Discovery Bank and Visa, shows that consumer spending grew 0.8 percentage points above inflation in 2025, marking the first real expansion in several years. But the more important shift is behavioural.
Rather than translating lower interest rates into higher discretionary spend, households are using the relief to stabilise their finances. Budgeting tools, rewards programmes, and value-seeking strategies are playing a more active role, with consumers focusing on stretching existing income rather than increasing consumption.
Hylton Kallner, the chief executive of Discovery Bank, described this shift as structural rather than cyclical.
“This is discipline, not distress – and it gives us cautious optimism for how South Africans will respond to the pressures 2026 brings.”
The result is a consumer who is more deliberate, more selective, and increasingly structured in how spending decisions are made. Across categories, the data points to a shift away from reactive spending towards planned, optimised behaviour.
Importantly, the survey component of the report reflects responses from higher-income South Africans – credit card holders earning R100 000 or more a year.
New spending categories begin to reshape household budgets
Within that broader shift, two emerging categories stand out for their ability to reshape not only direct spend, but adjacent consumption patterns: prescribed weight-management medication and online sports betting.
One of the more striking developments in this year’s data is the emergence of prescribed weight-management medication – particularly GLP-1 therapies – as a distinct and growing category of household expenditure.
According to the SpendTrend26 survey, 14% of respondents say they or someone in their household is using these medications, placing them firmly within mainstream consumer spend.
What distinguishes this category, however, is not just uptake, but its knock-on effects across other areas of spending.
Kallner highlighted both the scale and behavioural implications of this shift.
“Fourteen percent of respondents say that somebody in their house is currently using a prescribed weight-loss medication – particularly GLP-1s being the most common. It’s one in seven households surveyed.”
Among households using these treatments, spending patterns are being actively reshaped. A majority report higher spending on healthier foods (59%), alongside reduced spending on takeaways and restaurants (48%), and alcohol (45%). Notably, 38% also report lower overall grocery spend.
This combination points to more than a simple substitution between categories. Although part of the shift reflects a move towards healthier consumption, the decline in total grocery spend suggests a broader recalibration of household behaviour – potentially affecting the type and volume of food purchased.
The data does not isolate consumption volumes directly, but the simultaneous reduction across multiple discretionary and everyday categories indicates that spending is becoming more targeted and intentional, rather than simply redirected.
As Kallner noted, this has implications beyond healthcare.
“That’s a meaningful spillover into adjacent categories, and one that food retailers, restaurants, and alcohol brands should be watching.”
Taken together, the trend positions weight-management medication as more than a healthcare cost. It is beginning to function as a behavioural anchor, influencing how households allocate budgets across multiple categories – and potentially how much they consume overall.
Online betting expands – but within structured limits
A second category showing strong growth is online sports betting, which has now overtaken in-person gambling as the dominant form of betting spend in South Africa.
More than half of surveyed participants who engage in betting report doing so exclusively online, reflecting both the accessibility of digital platforms and the integration of betting into broader entertainment behaviour.
Activity is often event-driven – concentrated around major sporting fixtures – suggesting that, for many consumers, betting is engaged with as episodic entertainment rather than continuous consumption.
At the same time, participation levels are significant. As Kallner observed: “Seventy-five percent of South Africans surveyed respondents said they engage in sports betting in some shape or form, which underlies the kind of take-up and the trend.”
Yet the data also points to a more nuanced picture than simple expansion.
Almost half of respondents say they are spending less than a year ago, while 43% report setting and sticking to defined budgets. For most, betting remains positioned as discretionary entertainment rather than uncontrolled spend.
There are, however, early signs of reallocation within discretionary categories. A smaller segment – 7% of respondents – report reducing other entertainment spending to fund betting activity, indicating that although the category is growing, it is beginning to compete with adjacent leisure spend rather than displacing core household expenditure.
Kallner added: “The question that obviously materialises is what is entertainment versus what becomes unhealthy?”
Strategic spending, digital acceleration, and the role of technology
Beyond these emerging categories, the report points to a broader restructuring of everyday financial behaviour.
Consumers are becoming more deliberate in how they allocate spending, particularly on essentials. Value-seeking behaviours are now firmly embedded: 52% of South Africans actively look for bargains, 40% report buying more store-brand products, and many are increasingly using bulk buying, price comparisons, and rewards programmes to stretch their budgets.
At the same time, discretionary spending has not disappeared – it has become more selective. The report highlights a continued prioritisation of small, everyday indulgences, with 40% of consumers still treating themselves to small purchases despite cost pressures, reflecting what it describes as mindful rather than impulsive spending.
As Lineshree Moodley, country head of Visa South Africa, noted, “there’s still everyday treats that they are buying”, with consumers either justifying these purchases as earned rewards or timing them more deliberately around pay cycles and promotions.
In some categories, this more deliberate approach is also visible in how purchases are timed. Kallner pointed to fuel spending as an example, where consumers increasingly adjust how often – and how much – they buy based on expected price movements, reflecting a form of loss aversion in day-to-day decision-making.
At the same time, payment behaviour continues to shift decisively towards digital channels. Survey data shows that 94% of South Africans prefer card or digital payments, 85% hold a virtual card, and 73% actively use one, while digital wallets now account for about 30% of in-store transactions nationally.
Cash, although still present, is increasingly reserved for specific use cases. Most consumers report using cash infrequently – typically for taxis, tipping, or in environments where digital acceptance remains limited.
Moodley said this reflects a broader shift in confidence: “South Africans are increasingly choosing digital first when it is available, trusted and widely accepted – not because they have to, but because it works better for how they live, spend, and manage risk.”
This shift is reinforced by growing consumer awareness of fraud risks. Although digital fraud rates are declining because of improved controls, fraudsters are increasingly relying on social engineering tactics. Encouragingly, consumer vigilance is rising in response: 97% of respondents say they scrutinise messages before clicking links, and 54% use virtual cards when transacting with new online merchants.
Artificial intelligence is also becoming embedded in the spending process. About 40% of surveyed consumers now use AI tools weekly to inform purchasing decisions – primarily for price comparison, product research, and deal-finding – while AI-driven subscription payments more than doubled in 2025, growing by 125%.
Spending becomes timed, not continuous
A notable addition to this year’s report is a focus on when South Africans spend – disclosing a pattern of increasingly event-driven consumption.
Rather than distributing discretionary spending evenly, consumers are concentrating spend around predictable moments in the calendar, including discount periods, long weekends, celebration days, and major sporting events. On average, these events lift daily spend by about 13.6%, highlighting the extent to which spending is now clustered rather than continuous.
Certain events generate significantly larger spikes. Black Friday remains the most prominent, driving a 57% uplift in spend – with some categories, such as appliances, rising by as much as 108%. Long weekends increase spending by about 14%, while celebration days lift spending by 15%, with Valentine’s Day driving a 277% surge in florist purchases. Major sporting events also contribute, increasing daily spend by approximately 12%.
Moodley explained this shift as a response to uncertainty.
“In an environment where we have a lot of uncertainty, predictability is really the anchor that consumers are using to make decisions.”
These patterns suggest that consumption is becoming more planned and intentional – concentrated around moments that feel familiar, meaningful, or financially advantageous.
Outlook: pressure returns, but behaviour is already adapting
Looking ahead, the report suggests that the disciplined behaviours observed in 2025 are likely to be tested by renewed external pressures.
Rising global energy costs, shifting trade dynamics, and continued fraud risks are expected to shape the consumer environment in 2026. However, the underlying behavioural trends – value-seeking, digital adoption, and structured spending – appear firmly embedded.
Taken together, the findings point to a consumer who is not simply recovering but adapting.
South Africans are not spending more – they are spending more deliberately, with decisions increasingly shaped by technology, health considerations, and a heightened awareness of value and risk.
