The risk-off cycle is peaking
Markets have been under sustained pressure from conflict, tighter financial conditions, and liquidity strains. Ryk de Klerk argues this risk-off phase may be reaching its limits, even as volatility remains high.
Author: Ryk de Klerk
SaaS apocalypse: Why I shy away from US business development companies
Large SaaS exposures have helped trigger a pullback in BDC prices and dividends. Ryk de Klerk explains why current yields and NAV discounts may mask a deeper downside.
Silver: We saw the hysteria, will panic follow?
Inventory shifts and short covering drove the surge. With stocks rebuilding and hedging normalising, the market may be settling, says Ryk de Klerk.
US stocks: the bar for perfection is set very high, but opportunities abound
Historical trends suggest it could take up to three years for some sectors’ price-to-book ratios to normalise, says Ryk de Klerk.
Why I turned bullish on Bitcoin and bombed-out AI hyperscalers
Ryk de Klerk links Bitcoin’s slump and hyperscalers’ pain to a jump in Big Tech bond spreads, arguing the market has priced in heavy capex and financing needs.
I am bearish but invest bullish by seizing value opportunities
Ryk de Klerk’s focus has shifted from picking AI ‘winners’ to identifying future ‘survivors’ – and balancing portfolios with undervalued, lower-risk Healthcare and Consumer Staples.
Parabolic gold: risk/reward is too high
Reduced available mine supply and massive ETF flows have driven a parabolic gold rally that is pushing the asset beyond traditional defensive risk/reward thresholds.
The rand is at ‘a major inflection point’
Initial post-election gains have unwound as global commodity and manufacturing momentum converged with the world rand.
An eerie calm before the storm
While index levels look stable through September’s expiries, concentrated option exposures and rising fund-based covered-call strategies create a fragile backdrop for a sudden move.
Why I turned bearish on risk assets
Stocks are tasting new highs – largely powered by IT and communications services – yet leading indicators point to weaker manufacturing and downside earnings risk.
Why I am shy of the copper market and base metals
Traders left holding the world’s priciest copper could struggle to offload the metal if premiums erode – potentially triggering a broader base metals slump.
Taking funds offshore is the best and right thing for me to do
The main reasons are the growing threat of populist policies and ensuring that children and grandchildren can study overseas, so they can compete for jobs globally.
I prefer US government bonds ahead of corporate bonds
A portfolio split of 60% US Treasuries and 40% investment-grade corporate bonds emerges as the efficient frontier.
My mid-year outlook: US economy is the catalyst for volatility
As markets sputter between euphoria and panic, Ryk de Klerk argues that the true driver of volatility is the underlying health of the US economy.
Bitcoin adoption: increasingly part of my investment portfolio
Net cumulative purchases via pure Bitcoin ETFs have surged 2.5-fold since mid-March. This influx underscores growing institutional conviction in Bitcoin as a core portfolio allocation.
US dollar: what crisis?
From a peak 13% overvaluation versus major peers heading into January, the US dollar has plunged 7% on a trade-weighted basis in three months – a pace more than twice as fast as during Trump’s first term.
Risk ON: Why I turned bullish on stocks
Investors witnessed a sharp correction in major stock indexes after Trump imposed tariffs. An analysis of the S&P 500 PE trendline notes the re-rating potential of growth sectors that have slid into value territory.
