Global business risks are increasingly landing on South African doorsteps. The latest Allianz Risk Barometer for 2026 shows how cyber threats, artificial intelligence, and rising insolvencies are converging to test the resilience of local firms – particularly in financial services – in an increasingly volatile global environment.
From cyber-attacks and AI to geopolitical instability and rising insolvencies, the Allianz Risk Barometer shows how global threats are filtering directly into local business realities, influencing operational resilience, financial stability, and long-term strategy.
Although South African companies face a distinctive mix of risks rooted in infrastructure constraints, supply-chain fragility, and economic pressure, the overall risk profile closely mirrors global trends. This alignment underscores how exposed local firms are to an interconnected international system in which disruption in one region can quickly cascade across markets and sectors.
The 15th annual Allianz Risk Barometer draws on responses from 3 338 risk management experts across 97 countries and territories. Participants include global businesses, brokers, risk consultants, underwriters, senior managers, and claims specialists across Allianz Commercial and other Allianz entities, offering a comprehensive view of corporate risk perceptions heading into 2026.
Cyber and AI dominate the global risk rankings
Cyber incidents remain the most significant business risk globally for the fifth consecutive year, cited by 42% of respondents and leading the rankings by a wider margin than before. Threats such as ransomware, data breaches, and IT system disruptions now sit firmly at the centre of corporate risk management, reflecting the scale of financial, operational, and regulatory fallout when digital systems fail.
AI has emerged as the fastest-rising risk, jumping from tenth place in 2025 to second in 2026. The Allianz survey indicates that this sharp rise reflects growing concerns about implementation challenges, legal liability, misinformation, and reputational exposure as AI adoption accelerates across almost all industries. Although almost half of respondents believe AI is delivering more benefits than risks, a fifth hold the opposite view, with many organisations still weighing its long-term implications.
Business interruption, historically one of the top two risks, has slipped to third place. However, Allianz notes it remains a critical concern because it is often a consequence of other risks in the top ten, particularly cyber incidents, natural catastrophes, and geopolitical disruption.
Changes in legislation and regulation remain in fourth place, driven by concerns over tariffs, sustainability requirements, and regulatory divergence. Allianz warns that 2026 will be characterised by growing fragmentation as major jurisdictions move in different directions on digital and AI governance, prudential regulation, and sustainability standards.
Natural catastrophes and climate change round out the top six risks globally. Although their rankings were influenced by a relatively quieter hurricane season in 2025, insured catastrophe losses still exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth consecutive year, highlighting the persistent financial impact of extreme weather.
Political risks and violence have climbed to their highest global ranking, at seventh place, reflecting heightened geopolitical volatility, war, civil unrest, and government intervention. Respondents identified a large-scale geopolitical conflict involving multiple major economies as the most plausible “black swan” event that could disrupt global supply chains over the next five years.
Smaller firms, financial services, and SA
Although the global risk picture is broadly consistent across company sizes, the Allianz data discloses important nuances. Among smaller companies with annual revenue below US$100 million, cyber incidents remain the top concern, followed closely by AI and regulatory change. Business interruption, macro-economic pressures, and talent constraints feature more prominently for these firms, reflecting limited financial buffers and reduced capacity to absorb shocks.
In the global financial industry, risk concentration is even more pronounced. More than half of respondents in the sector identify cyber incidents as their primary concern, followed by AI. Regulatory change ranks third, with climate change and business interruption completing the top five. This profile highlights how financial institutions are navigating simultaneous exposure to digital vulnerability, rapid technological change, and increasingly complex compliance demands.
South Africa’s risk rankings closely track global trends but reflect distinctive local pressures. Cyber incidents remain the top risk, cited by nearly half of respondents, reinforcing the country’s exposure to cybercrime, data breaches, and system disruptions. Business interruption ranks second, underlining ongoing sensitivity to supply-chain disruption, operational downtime, and infrastructure constraints.
AI appears in South Africa’s top three risks for the first time, signalling growing awareness of both its transformative potential and its associated operational and legal challenges.
Natural catastrophes and climate change continue to feature prominently, while critical infrastructure failures – including power disruptions and ageing assets – remain a uniquely South African concern.
Political risk, fire and explosion, and regulatory change also feature in the local top ten, alongside the emergence of biodiversity and nature-related risks, such as water scarcity, as a new entrant.
Together, these rankings point to a risk environment in which South African businesses face the same structural threats reshaping the global economy, often with less resilience and fewer margins for error.
Cyber risk entrenches itself as the dominant threat
Cyber risk’s dominance reflects both the scale of recent incidents and the growing complexity of digital ecosystems. Allianz reports that cyber incidents rank as the top corporate concern across all regions surveyed, including Africa and the Middle East, and across all company sizes.
“The tools to protect against cyber-attacks are costly, yet the consequences of a successful incident are potentially catastrophic with huge business interruption and supply chain costs, as well as regulatory compliance and legal implications,” says Rishi Baviskar, the global head of cyber risk consulting at Allianz Commercial.
Cyber risk is no longer concentrated in traditional technology hubs. Allianz notes a rise in costly attacks on businesses and supply chains outside the United States and Europe during 2025, reinforcing the globalisation of cybercrime and its relevance for export-oriented economies such as South Africa.
“We are now seeing costly attacks on businesses and supply chains outside the US and Europe, with notable incidents in Asia in 2025,” says Baviskar.
At the same time, companies face tightening regulatory expectations across multiple jurisdictions. Allianz highlights growing exposure to stricter privacy and cybersecurity requirements in domestic and export markets, with accountability increasingly extending across entire supply chains. The European Union’s updated Product Liability Directive, which now explicitly covers cybersecurity, AI, software, and digital systems, is cited as one example with implications for global suppliers.
Ransomware, AI, and systemic disruption
Cybercrime has evolved into a highly organised and profitable industry. Allianz cites FBI data showing that reported cybercrime losses in the US surged to a record $16.6bn in 2024, a 33% annual increase.
Ransomware has become increasingly sophisticated, with specialist “initial access brokers” selling system access to affiliates who execute attacks and demand payment. Allianz Commercial claims data shows that ransomware accounted for 60% of the value of large cyber claims exceeding €1m in the first half of 2025. Data theft has also grown sharply, featuring in 40% of large claims by value, up from 25% in 2024.
AI is compounding these risks. Allianz reports that attackers are using AI to automate and accelerate attacks, enabling greater scale and speed while lowering the technical barrier for cyber criminals.
The impact of cyber incidents is increasingly systemic. Businesses are more dependent than ever on third-party providers for cloud services, software, and data processing, creating tightly interconnected ecosystems in which disruption can ripple quickly through supply chains.
“Digital infrastructure and technology are now critical to all businesses and their supply chains,” says Baviskar. “A cloud outage, technical glitch, or malicious attack can have huge implications for a business’s ability to produce and sell its goods and services.”
High-profile incidents in 2025 illustrate the scale of potential disruption, including ransomware attacks that halted production, affected thousands of suppliers, and contributed to wider economic fallout.
Allianz also notes a rise in large claims linked to non-malicious incidents, such as technical failures and human error, which accounted for a record 28% of large cyber claims by value in 2024.
Insolvencies rise as pressures converge
Alongside cyber threats and geopolitical uncertainty, Allianz warns that rising insolvencies will further test corporate resilience in 2026. According to Allianz Trade, global business insolvencies are expected to increase for a fifth consecutive year – an unprecedented run since the financial crisis.
Companies are entering the year with multiple vulnerabilities: weak economic growth in key regions, persistently high interest rates, constrained credit conditions, and the cost of restructuring supply chains amid geopolitical and trade tensions. Debt-heavy and capital-intensive businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, are expected to remain under pressure.
Allianz Trade forecasts global insolvencies to rise by 3% in 2026, following a 6% increase in 2025, driven mainly by North America and Asia. Although Western Europe is expected to see a modest decline, insolvency levels are likely to remain elevated.
“Five consecutive years of global insolvency increases is unprecedented since the financial crisis,” explains Maxime Lemerle, the lead analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade. “Two out of three countries [are] showing noticeably more bankruptcies than before the pandemic.”
A surge in new business creation, often linked to digitalisation and AI, could further amplify insolvency risks. Allianz Trade warns that a sharp correction following an AI-driven boom could mirror the dotcom era, triggering widespread business failures.
