Old Mutual expects its primary profit measure to fall by between 25% and 35% for the first half of 2026 after weaker equity and bond markets reduced returns on its shareholder investments, despite higher new-business sales and growth in operating earnings.
Adjusted headline earnings are expected to decline from R4.204 billion to between R2.733bn and R3.153bn for the six months to the end of June. By contrast, results from operations are forecast to increase by between 2% and 12%, from R4.94bn to between R5.039bn and R5.533bn.
The differing trends show that lower shareholder investment returns were the main reason adjusted headline earnings are expected to fall sharply, although some operating businesses also faced headwinds.
In a voluntary operating update and trading statement released on 31 August 2026, Old Mutual reported a 21% increase in Life annual premium equivalent sales to R7.857bn. Gross flows also rose by 21%, to R128.911bn, while the value of new business increased by 32%, to R569bn.
However, the increase in Life APE sales was boosted by group risk sales in Old Mutual Corporate that are not expected to recur at the same level in the second half. Excluding these sales, Life APE growth was 12%.
Market returns pull down adjusted earnings
Old Mutual said the decline in adjusted headline earnings was caused by lower shareholder investment returns compared with the first half of 2025.
The performance of its shareholder portfolio followed that of equity and bond indices during a period of what the group described as sharp risk-off conditions associated with continuing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.
Adjusted headline earnings per share are expected to decline by between 22% and 32%, from 96.6 cents to between 65.7 cents and 75.3 cents.
The expected increase in results from operations was driven primarily by stronger revenue in Wealth Management and Old Mutual Investments, supported by a higher average level of assets under management and administration and lower central costs.
These gains were partly offset by lower underwriting earnings from Old Mutual Insure compared with a strong prior period, as well as continued investment to scale Old Mutual Banking.
Results from operations in the group’s life businesses were also affected by negative economic variances in the current period, compared with positive economic variances in the first half of 2025. Old Mutual said underlying growth in results from operations was robust after adjusting for the period-on-period effect of these variances.
Results from operations per share are expected to increase by between 6% and 16%, from 113.5 cents to between 120.3 cents and 131.7 cents.
Corporate and wealth businesses lift sales
Life APE sales benefited mainly from group risk and annuity sales in Old Mutual Corporate, as well as higher living annuity and endowment sales in Wealth Management.
Old Mutual Africa Regions also recorded growth across its retail and corporate businesses.
The increase in gross flows was driven primarily by inflows into Wealth Management, particularly its local platform business, as well as the inclusion of 10X Investments. Old Mutual did not quantify how much of the growth was attributable to 10X.
Old Mutual Investments recorded higher inflows as third-party client activity improved across key investment capabilities. In Old Mutual Africa Regions, money-market inflows in Malawi and improved unit trust flows in East Africa contributed to the growth.
Net client cash flow remained negative, but the outflow narrowed by R6.997bn, from R10.125bn in the prior period to R3.128bn.
Old Mutual attributed the improvement to higher gross flows and the non-repeat of low-margin indexation outflows in Old Mutual Investments that occurred in the first half of 2025. The improvement therefore reflected both stronger current-period flows and the absence of a significant prior-period outflow.
The profitability of new business also improved. The value of new business margin increased by 10 basis points, from 1.3% to 1.4%.
Old Mutual attributed the increase in the value of new business and the improvement in its margin to higher sales volumes and a more profitable new-business mix in Wealth Management, Old Mutual Corporate, and Old Mutual Africa Regions. This was despite lower guaranteed annuity volumes in Personal Finance.
Old Mutual Insure’s margin declines
Gross written premiums increased by 3%, from R14.511bn to R14.934bn, supported by growth in Old Mutual Insure. The increase was partly offset by currency movements and lower renewals in Old Mutual Africa Regions following underwriting management actions.
Old Mutual Insure’s net underwriting margin declined by 210 basis points, from 9.7% to 7.6%, following elevated catastrophe losses during the period.
Although the margin was materially lower than in the first half of 2025, it remained near the upper end of Old Mutual’s medium-term target range of 5% to 8%. The group said underwriting profitability was supported by disciplined underwriting, effective claims management, and a diversified portfolio.
Zimbabwe supports headline and IFRS earnings
Headline earnings are expected to hold up better than adjusted headline earnings, declining by between 1% and 11%, from R4.162bn to between R3.704bn and R4.12bn.
Headline earnings per share could range from a 6% decline to a 4% increase, at between 91.6 cents and 101.4 cents, compared with 97.5 cents in the prior period.
IFRS profit after tax attributable to shareholders is expected to be between R3.692bn and R4.102bn, representing a decline of up to 10% or no change from the R4.102bn reported for the first half of 2025.
Old Mutual said headline earnings and IFRS profit benefited from a strong performance in Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe’s performance is not included in adjusted headline earnings, which partly explains why headline and IFRS earnings are expected to be more resilient than the group’s primary profit metric.
The per-share measures also benefited from Old Mutual’s share repurchase programme, which was implemented in 2025 and completed at the beginning of May 2026.
The programme contributed to a reduction in the adjusted weighted average number of ordinary shares used in the per-share calculations, from 4.352 billion in the prior period to 4.179 billion in the current period. The lower adjusted weighted average number of shares contributed to per-share movements that are more favourable than the corresponding changes in total earnings.
Old Mutual will release its interim results on 8 September 2026.
