
Holding the line: fiscal discipline takes centre stage
National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse says South Africa’s core fiscal challenge is structurally low economic growth that trails population expansion.

National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse says South Africa’s core fiscal challenge is structurally low economic growth that trails population expansion.

For investors, geopolitics is no longer background noise. It is a core driver of supply chains, inflation, and sovereign risk premia, says Momentum’s Sanisha Packirisamy.

A tighter, more disciplined Budget channels spending into social support and infrastructure while cutting waste to avoid tax hikes.

While borrowing remains substantial, improving bond yields, firmer revenue, and reduced debt-service growth suggest a more credible consolidation path.

The ratings agency says long-awaited reforms could finally lift South Africa onto a firmer growth path, with momentum expected to build steadily from 2026.

Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago says permanently lower inflation, fiscal consolidation, and reduced country risk could cut interest rates and create space for sustainable growth.

The National Assembly has passed the 2025 Appropriation Bill, unlocking R2.3 trillion in government spending.

The revised Budget reveals the hard truth: with limited borrowing room and rising demands, Treasury must make tough calls on what to fund – and what to cut.

South Africa’s credibility among investors and ratings agencies will depend on whether the government meets the fiscal targets it has set, says Treasury.

Tax specialist Louis Botha answers pressing questions about the suspended VAT increase and its broader implications for budget-making power and taxpayer rights.

A phased VAT increase and frozen tax brackets mean South Africans will pay more, while concerns grow over government spending and economic stagnation.

With the government now R8.6 billion short, planned social grant increases have been slashed – while Home Affairs and border management also see deep budget cuts.

Instead of hiking VAT, the government could fix its tax collection problems, improve state resource management, and stimulate the economy to boost revenue.

Financial planners weigh in on the fallout and why investors should stay calm.

With South Africa’s debt-to-GDP ratio at 75.1%, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana faces a tough balancing act – can his Budget Speech reassure investors and spark economic growth?

PSG Asset Management warns that market complacency, overconcentration in US equities, challenging starting valuations, and potential policy risks could make the next decade challenging for investors.

Stable growth and fiscal discipline could see South Africa’s credit rating rise two notches in the next three years.