SARB revises near-term inflation higher, shifts rate bias amid oil shock
Baseline inflation is seen peaking at 4% in Q2, with scenario analysis pointing to possible rate hikes if second-round effects emerge.
#coreinflation
What the SARB is waiting for before it starts cutting the repo rate
Headline inflation softened to 5.2% in April, but the upside risks remain, particularly from food prices.
SARB signals the repo rate may not be cut until 2025
The markets are pricing for a rate reduction next year, and headline inflation is expected to return to the midpoint of the target band only in the last quarter of 2025.
Interest rate cuts only likely in the third quarter of this year
The drier El Niño weather pattern is emerging as one of the biggest risks to the outlook for food inflation.
