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A Coup in Burkina Faso

The situation in Burkina Faso has turned into a coup d’état, as we thought was likely. On the morning of Thursday, September 17, a military official announced on television that the army, acting as the ‘National Democracy Council’, had deposed the interim government of President Michel Kafando and Prime Minister Isaac Zida, whose transition government […]

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JPMorgan boots Nigeria from influential bond index

Bloomberg reported late on Tuesday, September 8 that JPMorgan has decided to eject Nigeria from its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM). Justifying its decision, the investment bank stated: “Investors who track the GBI-EM series continue to face challenges and uncertainty while transacting in the naira due to the lack of a fully functional two-way forex […]

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ICC developments and future risks for Kenya

Wednesday, August 19, was a busy day at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague. The ICC’s judges made two calls that could potentially have an impact on political risk in Kenya. The first important ruling was made by a panel of judges in the matter of the case against President Uhuru Kenyatta for […]

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Nigeria – Reasons to expect some policy liberalisation

Structural factors, recent news and upcoming events give reason to believe that Nigeria is about to take a liberal turn on policy. The most important structural factors are the catastrophic state of public finances and the naira’s unsustainable strength on the official currency market. Important recent news has included President Muhammadu Buhari’s sacking of the […]

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Ghardaia violence is a particular worry for Algeria right now

Violence in Ghardaia is a symptom of Algeria’s stagnant polity, but also shows up a dangerous, exploitable fault line. The most recent violence between Mozabite (Berber) and Arab communities, who belong to different sects of Islam, respectively observing the Ibadite and Malekite rites, flared up in the week, and reportedly caused 19 deaths in the […]

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Assassination and terror attack in Egypt

Prosecutor-General Hesham Barakat was assassinated in a roadside bombing on Monday, June 29. The bomb was planted on a road near Mr Barakat’s home and detonated as he was on his way to work. One bystander was killed and at least nine other people wounded. It was the first assassination of a prosecutor-general in Egypt, […]

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New capital controls in Nigeria and Angola

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced additional capital controls on June 24. CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele listed up to 40 items that would henceforth not be eligible for the purpose of purchasing foreign exchange on the interbank market. These items comprise food-related products, manufacturing inputs, textiles & clothes, certain household goods and cement. The […]

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South Africa flouts rule of law with Al-Bashir incident

At some point before or during the 25th African Union (AU) summit held in Gauteng during June 7-15, the South African government crossed an extremely dangerous line. The executive took a decision to override any judicial actions that might occur during the course of the event, or afterward, and imposed a political solution. Omar Al-Bashir, […]

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